7 Going forward
I hope at this point that you feel inspired to tackle your own Mura and Muri problems. Please take the time to have a go, be prepared to make a few mistakes, learn from the experience, and try again. Remember, failures are not final and victory is seldom instantaneous. While there are costs, ultimately, this project will fundamentally change the way you conduct your business; process discipline will come to dominate business urgency.
- Value stream mapping.
- Time series analysis.
- Implement a pilot forecasting system and planning book in a simple spreadsheet.
- Test, over time, to see how it works for a couple of part numbers (or perhaps all the part numbers that share the same production line).
- Determine your replenishment system design and validate your pilot program.
- Implement the process into your ERP system, verify its performance.
- Now that you have an operating instance expand the process out to other parts of your business.
How do we get people to understand and adopt? Have an implementation and demonstrate the value. Document the costs and benefits, calculate the improvement in the supply chain metrics, and show the advantage. Showcase your achievements, communicate, and celebrate your success, talk about your pain points and how you eliminated them. Compare and contrast your methods and processes to others in your company. Transfer best practices by sharing your hard-earned knowledge and tools with others. Focusing on getting the right balance between the Bullwhip effect and the inventory variance will no doubt reduce your Mura and Muri. However, there will also be a range of intangible process benefits from this project:
- You will get a better view of the supply chain (demand, capacity, in-transit, inventory, lead times, etc.), and there is one version of the truth. That is, everyone will have access to the same data and can make their decisions on a consistent data set, reducing confusion. Indeed, given the same set of information, people will usually come to the same conclusion. Furthermore, your ERP system contains an archive of this information, and all can access that.
- Your delivery capability will increase, and you will be better able to handle the special requests – the emergencies – when they do occur with considered purpose and less panic.
- The schedule is known with greater certainty, earlier in the week, producing other benefits:
- Operators know earlier whether overtime will be required on the weekend, letting them organize their personal life better.
- The production team knows when the changeovers will happen. The predictable schedule allows them to arrange for the set-up activities beforehand and get everything in place for a smooth change-over.
- Maintenance work will be easier to schedule, reducing the time to undertake maintenance. Timely maintenance will lead to fewer breakdowns.
- Suppliers are presented with more stable demand, reducing their inventory, and the need for burst capacity. The predictable demand makes it easier for them to schedule maintenance, improving their up-time and reducing their costs. Overall a better relationship is created, resulting in better negotiations when contracts are renewed and extended.
- There is a more explicit definition of the roles and responsibility, resulting in more accountability.
- There is a more positive discussion of the production plan each week. Rather than questioning the quality of the decisions made, the team can consider: how to best achieve the production plan, whether the system and data is correct, and how to cope with the current situation in a considered manner.
From experience I have realized that removing the Mura and Muri from your business is a long journey. It requires a visionary, strategic champion, a decision-maker who can see the whole process, a systems thinker who understands the concepts of time delays and feedback. The champion must also have the authority to make decisions and the tenacity to relentlessly continue towards the goal, bringing along the slow-adopters, without being distracted by the nay-sayers.
This type of project also requires a team with a wide range of skills and data access: supply chain and factory managers, production planners, forecasters, engineers, IT specialists, warehouse, and factory personnel. Each of these people will play a critical role. They will know what you will need to access, and they will only help you if they recognize they will not be disadvantaged. Your people skills will be a critical success factor. It is not a small project; you should be prepared to invest two person years plus into the project depending on the scope of your business, but the journey is both fascinating and rewarding.
I have enjoyed writing this workbook; I hope it gives you a sense of my passion of the Bullwhip Effect, and I hope some of my passion has been transferred to you!
Professor Stephen M. Disney PhD
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